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Saturday 28 March 2020

Not OK Computer

The words of one Prof. Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London, have played some not insignificant part in the unfolding coronavirus situation. As a member of a parliamentary select committee informing and advising government, he 'calculated' that 500,000 could die of coronavirus in Britain. He has now changed his mind. He says it is more likely to be around 20,000. At this point, it's time to play a little game: Spot the Difference.

After reading this, it hit me. Sometimes things do, don't they? The obvious, that's been staring you in the face for ages. So obvious that you just don't see it. The modern world is shaped largely by people (largely men) with overdeveloped brains and underdeveloped lives, who spend inordinate amounts of time sitting in front of computer screen fiddling around with numbers, curves, and the like. At the very least, their dubious activities provide dubious credibility for dubious people who wish to put into place dubious measures.

You see, the same is true for climate change/global warming/ Greta panic, whatever you want to call it. Should you examine the actual data, at least before it's been fed into a computer and modified by NASA, NOAA, IPCC or whoever, you will find nothing to get hysterical about. Nothing at all. In fact, if truth be told, data I looked at a few weeks ago showed that the majority of the Earth's surface has cooled down over the past five years (sorry to be such a party pooper).

However, if you decide to 'model' or 'simulate' the future by putting a bunch of variables into a computer programme, variables concerning the future, about which we have little real idea, then you can come up with anything you want to. You simply mess around with the variables until you get the kind of result you want, then give it to National Geographic, BBC, CNN, or whoever, and the world will react  in knee-jerk fashion accordingly.

Isn't it extraordinary? The shape of the human world decided by dodgy computer modelling? Modelling a future that we do not, and cannot, know, using a bunch of assumptions, expectations, or the like. Then basing decisions which affect millions of people's lives on that imagined future. Talk about crazy - or simply nasty.

When I wrote recently about this life being a 'test for the individual soul' this is surely a big part of it. Are you going to be just taken in by the hype? Or are you bold enough to see through the veils, or at least ask proper questions about 'official solutions'? Is your soul up to the task or not?

Modern humanity is no less liable to being taken in than were its predecessors, who modernity is fond of scoffing at for their naivety, gullibility, superstition, blind religiosity. Naivety, gullibility, superstition, blind and misplaced religiosity: all such charges can be aimed equally at those who sit at the feet of the modern god of figures, statistics, academia, 'scientists say....' What a huge and absolutely awful joke.